Arab Spring and its Implications for Israeli Security

The recent political developments in the Middle East have grave consequences for Israeli security. Israeli security is becoming more vulnerable with the incidence of Arab Spring and the rise of hostile regimes in its neighborhood.

With the advent of Arab Spring and falling of dictators, Israel’s friends are also decreasing in its neighborhood. With the fall of Mubarek in Egypt, Israel lost one of its closest allies in the region, who used to supply 40 percent of its natural gas needs. After the fall of Mubarek, Israeli gas supply has been sabotaged a number of times by the post-Mubarek Islamists. The burning of Israeli embassy in Cairo by a violent mob manifests the public sentiment about Israel in Egypt. This also puts the energy security of Israel in jeopardy.

The relations between the Israel and Lebanon were hostile after the 2006 war and now Lebanon also have a territorial dispute with Israel to delimit sea boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean. This dispute has escalated into a geopolitical conflict, with the discovery of Leviathan oil and gas field in the eastern Mediterranean; Lebanon claims that part of the Leviathan gas field lay in Lebanese territorial waters in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), to which the Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman retorted, “We won’t give an inch.”

The relations between Israel and Syria are also hostile, with a major dispute over the occupation of Golan Heights by Israel. Diplomatic ties have not been established, and the countries have fought four major wars, in 1948, 1967, 1973 and 1982. After the possible fall of Assad regime the bilateral relations are likely to further deteriorate, with the possible rise of Islamists.

Israeli-Turkish relations were already low over the Israeli gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, when they further deteriorated after nine of Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli military forces during the flotilla incident. The tensions could have been diffused, had Israel rendered a sincere apology for the loss of life but Israel’s adamancy resulted in severing of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The increased level of hostility because of the rise of Islamists, coupled with the struggle for control over critical energy resources in the Levantine Basin, might lead to another Arab-Israeli war; and this time Turkey might not stay neutral in the war. Israel has to show some flexibility to overcome its international isolation by reproaching to its Moderate neighbors like Turkey. Turkey as a regional power in the Middle East can help ease tensions on the Israeli security by mediating Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as conflicts between Israel and its increasingly hostile neighbors.

* The piece was originally written for Tandem Post and it is also available at:
http://www.tandempost.com/yazar/4786-khurram-kazi-arab-spring-and-its-implications-for-israeli-secur.html