Rising Tensions between Turkey and Syria; and a Possible Military Intervention in Syria

Last month, Turkey invoked the Article IV of the Atlantic charter that stipulates: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened”, and called on a meeting of the NATO member states, to discuss its response to the shooting down of one of its warplanes by Syrian forces over the Mediterranean. It was important for Turkey to invoke article 4 before proceeding to article V of the Atlantic Charter that calls for a collective self-defense as enshrined in the article 51 of the UN Charter. The meeting finished with a unanimous declaration condemning the Syrian aggression and pledging solidarity with Turkey. The persistence of tensions between Turkey and Syria might pave the way for a long-standing demand of some of the Western countries to militarily intervene in Syria. Considering the precarious security situation in the Middle-East and North Africa, a military intervention in Syria will destabilize the already volatile region. Libya is still coping with a civil war and a government that fails to exercise effective control over its territories. The role of NATO - which is a defensive military alliance - has already been widely criticized due to its offensive role in Libya. Military intervention in Syria may also result in the rise of Islamists in addition to a protracted civil war.

The international community is facing a dilemma; on one hand they are blamed for their inaction to protect the civilians from the massacre at the hands of the Assad regime, and on the other hand they are afraid that Syria might follow the course of Libya; a protracted civil war; mass-migration; and no effective government. The invocation of Article V of the Atlantic treaty along with the article 51 (Self-defense) of the UN charter gives a way-out to the WEST to intervene without a Chapter VII resolution of the UN Security Council. Keeping in mind the Russia’s unconditional support to the Assad’s regime and the failure of the Annan plan, this scenario could be provide the only possible legal option for a military intervention in Syria. Despite the legality of military intervention, the repercussions of the intervention are not very bright, which might impede a quick decision. Sooner or later, a military intervention in Syria is inevitable.

The transforming role of Turkey is also very important. Turkey restrained from using force last years when nine of its citizens were killed by Israeli military forces during the flotilla incident. Turkey also refused to provide logistics and passage to the US, during the occupation of Iraq. In case of Syria, Turkey has been a very vocal critique of the Assad regime; Turkey was the first country to organize a meeting of the Syrian opposition in Istanbul. The reaction of Syria is also not very positive; the decision to conduct military exercises next to Turkish border, while Turkish forces are taking an aggressive posture, has the potential to further deteriorate the situation. The situation could have been better, if Syria could have rendered a sincere apology.

 The recent statement by the French President François Hollande – that he will not rule out a possibility of a military intervention in Syria – also shows the increasing willingness of the international community to intervene in Syria on humanitarian grounds. With the strong opposition of Russia and China the invocation of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is least likely to be possible. Hence any future skirmish between Turkey and Syria will provide an opportunity for a NATO led military intervention in Syria without a UNSC resolution under chapter VII.

* The article was originally written for online publication Tandem Post, and it was published on July 24, 2012.

Azerbaijan and the Challenges to Global Warming

Global warming and rising sea-levels is a serious threat to many Island states such as Maldives that will quickly disappear from the face of earth, with the current level of emissions. The average temperature of the earth's surface has risen by 0.6 degrees C since the late 1800s. It is expected to increase by another 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by the year 2100. The 1990s appear to have been the warmest decade of the last Millennium, and 1998 the warmest year. Over a decade ago, most countries joined an international treaty -- the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- to begin to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. As a follow-up, a number of nations have approved an addition to the treaty: the Kyoto Protocol, which has more powerful (and legally binding) measures.

The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) provides Azerbaijan with new opportunities for reducing its emissions of greenhouse gases, mobilizing resources for environmentally-friendly technologies and achieving other sustainable development objectives.

Azerbaijan is a country with serious environmental challenges, from endangered species to industrial pollution to basic issues of water supply and safety. As a post-Soviet country, public awareness about issues such as environmental conservation and sustainable development is limited. Although the government have initiated some projects on environment but those projects have yet to create an impact on ground. There are a number of initiatives on environmental dialogue but they have failed to translate in to any concrete actions.

Azerbaijan is also one of the largest emitters of green house gases in the region. The booming oil industry and the cheap availability of hydrocarbons give an incentive to buy big cars and to generate electricity by using oil. There is a dire need to shift means of production towards renewable sources such as solar, wind, geo-thermal, and hydro and such an effort needs a firm commitment from the government.

Arab Spring and its Implications for Israeli Security

The recent political developments in the Middle East have grave consequences for Israeli security. Israeli security is becoming more vulnerable with the incidence of Arab Spring and the rise of hostile regimes in its neighborhood.

With the advent of Arab Spring and falling of dictators, Israel’s friends are also decreasing in its neighborhood. With the fall of Mubarek in Egypt, Israel lost one of its closest allies in the region, who used to supply 40 percent of its natural gas needs. After the fall of Mubarek, Israeli gas supply has been sabotaged a number of times by the post-Mubarek Islamists. The burning of Israeli embassy in Cairo by a violent mob manifests the public sentiment about Israel in Egypt. This also puts the energy security of Israel in jeopardy.

The relations between the Israel and Lebanon were hostile after the 2006 war and now Lebanon also have a territorial dispute with Israel to delimit sea boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean. This dispute has escalated into a geopolitical conflict, with the discovery of Leviathan oil and gas field in the eastern Mediterranean; Lebanon claims that part of the Leviathan gas field lay in Lebanese territorial waters in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), to which the Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman retorted, “We won’t give an inch.”

The relations between Israel and Syria are also hostile, with a major dispute over the occupation of Golan Heights by Israel. Diplomatic ties have not been established, and the countries have fought four major wars, in 1948, 1967, 1973 and 1982. After the possible fall of Assad regime the bilateral relations are likely to further deteriorate, with the possible rise of Islamists.

Israeli-Turkish relations were already low over the Israeli gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, when they further deteriorated after nine of Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli military forces during the flotilla incident. The tensions could have been diffused, had Israel rendered a sincere apology for the loss of life but Israel’s adamancy resulted in severing of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The increased level of hostility because of the rise of Islamists, coupled with the struggle for control over critical energy resources in the Levantine Basin, might lead to another Arab-Israeli war; and this time Turkey might not stay neutral in the war. Israel has to show some flexibility to overcome its international isolation by reproaching to its Moderate neighbors like Turkey. Turkey as a regional power in the Middle East can help ease tensions on the Israeli security by mediating Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as conflicts between Israel and its increasingly hostile neighbors.

* The piece was originally written for Tandem Post and it is also available at:
http://www.tandempost.com/yazar/4786-khurram-kazi-arab-spring-and-its-implications-for-israeli-secur.html

Is the ground for a military intervention laid in Syria?

Turkey has called on a meeting of the NATO member states on the coming Tuesday, to discuss its response to the shooting down of one of its warplanes by Syrian forces over the Mediterranean. Ankara has invoked the Article IV of the Atlantic charter that stipulates: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened”. This may be a first step of invoking article V of the Atlantic Charter that calls for a collective self-defense as enshrined in the article 51 of the UN Charter. This may pave the way for a long-standing demand of some of the Western countries to militarily intervene in Syria. Considering the precarious security situation in the Middle-East and North Africa, a military intervention in Syria may destabilize the already volatile region. Libya is still coping with a civil war and a government that fails to exercise effective control over its territories. The role of NATO - which is a defensive military alliance - has already been widely criticized due to its offensive role in Libya. Military intervention in Syria may also result in the rise of Islamists in addition to a protracted civil war.

The international community is facing a dilemma: on one hand they are blamed for their inaction to protect the civilians from the massacre at the hands of the Assad regime; and on the other hand they are afraid that Syria may follow the course of Libya; a protracted civil war; mass-migration; and no effective government. This is indeed a tough call for the NATO members. The invocation of Article V of the Atlantic treaty along with the article 51 (Self-defense) of the UN charter gives a way-out to the WEST to intervene without a Chapter VII resolution of the UN Security Council. Keeping in mind the Russia’s unconditional support to the Assad’s regime and the failure of the Annan plan, this scenario could provide the only possible legal option for a military intervention in Syria. Despite the legality of military intervention, the repercussions of the intervention are not very bright, which might impede a quick decision. Sooner or later, a military intervention in Syria is inevitable.

The transforming role of Turkey is also very important. Turkey restrained from using force last years when nine of its citizens were killed by the Israeli military forces during the flotilla incident. Turkey also refused to provide passage to the US, during the occupation of Iraq. In case of Syria, Turkey has been a very vocal critique of the Assad regime; Turkey was the first country to organize a meeting of the Syrian opposition in Istanbul. Public opinion in favor of a military intervention is increasing with the rising death toll of the Syrian population. The recent statement by the French President François Hollande – that he will not rule out a possibility of a military intervention in Syria – also shows the increasing willingness of the international community to intervene in Syria on humanitarian grounds. With the strong opposition of Russia and China the invocation of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is least likely to be possible. Hence the recent incident gives an opportunity to militarily intervene without a UNSC resolution under chapter VII. Whatever the NATO member states decide in their meeting on the coming Tuesday, will determine the pace of political change in Middle-East; and it will not be an easy decision.

Azerbaijan – The land of Fire

The word ‘Azerbaijan’ means ‘the land of fire’ and the word ‘Baku’ means ‘the city of winds’. The name says it all; in Azerbaijan there are many places where there is centuries’ old naturally lit fire due to the seepage of natural gas from the soil. Baku as the name says is the city of winds that witness very fast winds and an unpredictable weather. I came to Azerbaijan in August 2011 and immediately fell in love with this great country with its friendly and hospitable people. Azerbaijan and Pakistan has many similarities in terms of culture, language and history. Like Pakistan was colonized by the British, Azerbaijan was colonized by the Bolshevik Russians, who tried to suppress Azeri language and religion. Similar to Kashmir dispute is the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, where Azerbaijani territory has been occupied by a belligerent neighbor.

A Bride dancing during her wedding

Wedding Culture in Azerbaijan is very exciting and full of festivity. Every Azeri wedding is like a mega celebrity wedding with lots of guests, food, and dances.   A wedding usually starts at 6 p.m. and continues until mid night where food keeps coming all the time and people eat and dance like there is no tomorrow. The most interesting feature of an Azerbaijani wedding is the special and mesmerizing dance by the Bride and Groom. Like Pakistan, all the guests pay cash gifts to the newlywed couple as a honeymoon gift.

Azerbaijani cuisine is one of the most rich and sumptuous cuisines.  When someone invite you at his/her place expect the dinner to last for 5-6 hours, where food will comprise of 5-6 courses and the host will urge you to continue eating. The dinner will always have the national meal, Aash, dolma, and Pakhlawa. Aash is a pilaf with rice, mutton and dry fruits whereas dolma is a mixture of minced meat and rice steamed inside the grape leaf. Pakhlawa is a sweet dish made up of wheat, sugar, butter and nuts.

Novruz is a national festival celebrated with the great excitement and zeal. Novruz celebrates the arrival of spring. Its history dates back to the Zoroastrian people, who used to dance around fire to welcome spring. The Azerbaijani state officially observes a national holiday for one week, and organize national level celebrations. People light fire in every nook and corner of the country and jump over it. The superstition is that if you jump over the fire, all your bad luck for the coming year will vanish in the fire.  People also cook many sweet dishes and share it with guests and neighbors. Pakhlawa, Sakarbura, and Badam Bura are the sweet dishes that they never miss during the Novruz.  Children rings the call bells of neighbors, put their hats in front of the door, and hide. According to the Azerbaijani custom, the neighbor put sweets and dry fruits in the hat for the children. People also listen secretly to their neighbor’s talk and believe that the first good thing they hear will become true for them. Another interesting feature of Novruz is the egg fight; people hit boiled eggs together, the person whose egg is cracked first loses the game. People also set the Novruz special tray that contains some grass in the center and seven different types of dry fruits, sweets, eggs, and candles all around.

Novruz Special Tray

Another important festival is the ‘Pomegranate Festival’ that is celebrated in Goychay, a city famous for its pomegranate farms. During the pomegranate festival, people make a lot of food items for pomegranate and serve it to all the guests and visitors for free. They make fresh pomegranate juice, pomegranate jam, pomegranate sauce, and pomegranate wine. They also present fresh pomegranates to all visitors as a gift. People in Goychay believe that if a couple get married during the pomegranate festival then they will surely live happily ever after. There are many couples who get married during the Pomegranate festival under the state patronage.

Pomegranates from all over Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani language has a lot of similarities with Urdu; it comes from the Turkic family of languages that uses many Persian and Arabic words. If you know Urdu you can easily learn Azerbaijani. Like the word Kuca means Street, and the word Muktab means School. The word Kitab means Book, and Shagird means Pupil.

Azerbaijani Pilaf is very similar to Kashmiri pilaf, and it contains mutton rice and different dry fruits. Azerbaijani Qutab is very similar to our Paratha and Peraski is very similar to our Samosa.

Azerbaijan is also one of the fastest growing economies with around 30 % of growth per annum. In addition to a booming oil industry, Azerbaijan is also rapidly growing in construction, banking, food processing, IT, and tourism sectors. This year Eurovision, the European Song contest is also coming to Azerbaijan that will bring millions of tourists to the vibrant city of Baku. Eurovision is something about which everyone is so excited in Azerbaijan and the city of Baku has been preparing to host millions of tourists who will land in Baku to witness the song contest.

Azerbaijan recently started a world class Diplomatic Academy that functions on the American model of higher Education. All the faculty members at Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy have PhD’s from leading American, British, and German Universities. The graduates of Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy (ADA) are working with various International Organizations as well as Foreign ministries of their respective governments. ADA is the only university in the Central Asia and Caucasus region that has a green campus that uses solar and bio-thermal energy, has rain water collection system and is environmentally sustainable. ADA offers fellowships to all admitted foreign students that cover tuition and housing.

Football is the most popular sport in Azerbaijan, where everyone from age 3-80 is a fan of football teams. People play football all the time, and even in the densely populated city of Baku they still find space to built football fields.

An encounter with Thai Food

Being a food lover, my understanding of any culture comes from the kind of food they serve. From my early childhood, I am a big fan of Thai food, especially the Tom Yom soup. Last year, I got a chance to go to Thailand for a month, where I encountered the authentic Thai Cuisine.

After a night long tiring journey to Bangkok, I was welcomed with a traditional Thai breakfast comprising of Fried Rice, Chicken and Tea. This encounter was very refreshing and pleasant indeed. For lunch, the hot and spicy Tom Yom soup is a must in a traditional Thai lunch. Other items includes: Fish, Rice, Salads, Chicken and lots of fruits. Dinner also comprises of more or less the same items.

More use of Seafood in Thai cuisine is clearly, an outcome of proximity to the sea; and more use of hot spices is a trademark of tropic climate. 
Food also tells us the secret of Thai people’s smartness. Thai food is low in calories and it is moderately sweet unlike many Central Asian foods. Also, the meal timings are very important; Thai people take an early dinner (between 6 to 7 pm), that gives them a large window of time to digest the food, before they go to sleep, which is very healthy indeed. Also, the serving is very balanced and non-excessive, that ensures a healthy lifestyle. 
Food helped me understand Thai culture in a much better way, where I found Thai people to be very culturally distinct and respectful.

Cultural Dimension of Srilanka

One of my favorite travel destinations is Srilanka (Also known to many as Ceylon), where I have been twice after the war ended in 2009. One of the reasons why I love Srilanka, as a travel destination is the respect that Srilankan immigration authorities give to a Pakistani Passport holder by granting a free on-arrival visa for 30 days.

When I went there the first time in 2010, I was impressed by the cleanliness of streets, and responsible drivers. The Srilankan drivers are particularly courteous towards pedestrians and they stop their vehicles the moment they see a pedestrian wanting to cross the road. The first encounter to Srilankan food was not quite good, but once I adapted to the hot and spicy Srilankan Cuisine, there was nothing better than that. I still miss the spicy Srilankan food. Culturally, Srilankan people are very helpful. They will always find time to accompany you to different notable places. In Colombo, Many people speak fluent English, so there is no linguistic difficulty for foreigners.

The second time when I went to Srilanka in 2011, I saw a stark rise in the number of foreign tourists in Colombo. This was also reflected by the rise in prices, in the markets of Colombo. This time, I also had the opportunity to visit Kandy, about which I always heard good things during Cricket commentaries. I decided to go to Kandy via Train, and also explore the railway system of Srilanka. The country is using old “Made in India”, trains that are slow and congested but they provide a greater opportunity to move around and converse with different people. The train also passes through some serene and scintillating places that compensate for the extended travel time, as compared to a bus journey. It also gave me an opportunity to talk to many Srilankan families about their lives and learn more about their culture and history. My conversations were very interesting; the families were friendly and hospitable; and they also offered me some Bananas that they were eating, which I accepted with thanks.

After four and a half hours of train journey, I finally reached Kandy. Kandy welcomed me, with a sprinkle of rain and an exotic scent of tea. I simply loved the natural beauty and the sprinkle of rain, which is a regular feature of Kandian Climate. The city is also very famous for its tea plantation. One interesting incident that happened in Kandy was when I asked the directions for Kandy Lake from a traffic sergeant. He instantly stopped a bus, and told me to board on it; he also told the Bus driver - in Sinhala - to drop me off at my destination.

I also went to the highest hill-top in Gampola (a place next to Kandy), where the government has constructed an amazingly beautiful Inter-faith worship place having a Mosque, A Buddhist Temple and a Hindu Temple together. The place was filled the spirit of peaceful coexistence among the three major religions followed in Srilanka.

I also visited the “Tooth Palace”, that was full of pilgrims from All over Srilanka and South India. Every day hundreds of people come to Kandy just to see a glimpse of Buddha’s tooth, which is preserved in the Tooth Palace. It was interesting to see the excitement of people, who travelled long distances to visit the Holy Palace. I also visited the International Buddhism Museum that contains Buddhist archives from all over the world. It was nice to see a special “Pakistan Corner” that contained Buddhism archives from Taxila, Pakistan.

On my way back, I took a bus, to diversify my experience. The bus was much quicker and it completed the distance in just three in half hours. But, I missed the beautiful scenes and long conversations that I experienced through a train journey. Kandy has left pleasant memories in my mind; still when I think of Kandy, I became nostalgic about the Beauty and hospitality of Kandy.

A smile comes to my face whenever, I think about the great time that I had in Srilanka; and I want to go there again and again.